As investors weigh signs of a growing US stockpile build and weak technical indicators, oil held steady following its largest drop in two weeks.
Following a 1.9% decline, West Texas Intermediate held over $74 per barrel Wednesday, as Brent crude hung near $80 per barrel. According to a report by Bloomberg, the American Petroleum Institute reported that US inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels, with levels at Cushing also growing. All of that data indicates that supply is beating out demand as the end of the year draws near.
Later on Thursday the official prints on US inventories, as well as gauges of output and demand will be released by the Energy Information Administration. For the past nine weeks, crude volumes at the key Cushing Oklahoma hub have been increasing. If there is a 10th build confirmed in the official print, it would be the longest run of builds seen since 2016.
Crude has risen roughly 8% since its lows in December, when attacks by Houthi rebels operating out of Yemen caused tankers and other vessels to cease their transits through the waterway, and divert to longer voyages, which increased costs. Even as the US has formed a task force to secure the waterway from attacks, major transporters, such as Hapag-Lloyd have said they will continue to divert their ships around the route.
Redmond Wong, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets Ltd., said that although, “the attacks in the Red Sea are likely to keep markets on edge,” the indications that inventories in the US are increasing, “may exert downward pressure on crude oil prices.”
In terms of technical analysis, the two benchmarks have both just formed the bearish “death cross,” when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day figure, the first time it has done so since September of 2022. The pattern is noted for often indicating further weakness is approaching.