In the third quarter, Britain’s economy contracted unexpectedly, and the nation may have already entered into a technical recession, according to the latest data.
In a revised report issued by the Office of National Statistics, it showed that during the third quarter, GDP fell 0.1% compared to the second quarter, a downgrade from the initial estimates, which indicated growth had been flat. The figure for the second quarter GDP was also downgraded by the ONS, which said there had been no growth between April and June. Previously the agency had estimated there had been a 0.2% expansion.
The report indicated it was the lagging services sector, which is responsible for four fifths of the UK’s output, which was responsible for the fall in GDP. By falling 0.2%, the decline in services was more than enough to offset the 0.4% growth in the much smaller construction sector and the 0.1% increase in production.
Analysts note that the third quarter revision will risk putting the UK in a technical recession, which is defined at two quarters or more of a decline in the GDP. Data showed that on a month to month basis, there was a 0.3% decline in output for October which puts the economy on a course which would see it contract again in the fourth quarter.
Capital Economics analyst Ashley Webb said in an interview with Bloomberg, “The mildest of mild recessions may have begun in the third quarter. Looking ahead, the latest activity surveys point to weak GDP growth in the fourth quarter too.”
In other data which was released by the ONS, last month retail sales grew by more than expected, as earlier than usual and wider Black Friday discounts drove purchasing by consumers.
Analysts note that the revised figures for the GDP may increase the pressure on the Bank of England to begin cutting interest rates again, to support the economy. Previously the regulator had forecast that there would be a 50% chance of a recession in the second half of the year.