New trading data shows cocoa prices rising to the highest levels in almost 50 years this week, as global supplies decline due to various factors.

The vital ingredient for chocolate making saw New York futures rise to over $4,200 per metric ton. That marks the highest price seen since September of 1977, beating out even the highs of 2011, when there was a ban on cocoa export by Cote d’Ivoire. So far this year, prices have surged by about 75%.

Analysts note that this year there have been weak harvests in both Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana, which together supply the world with roughly two-thirds of the global supply of cocoa beans. Reductions in fertilizer use by farmers, and extreme weather events, are being blamed for reductions in harvests themselves, which were further exacerbated by outbreaks of crop diseases. According to media reports, this year’s harvests, currently underway, have already failed to keep up with the pace of last year, leading to fears that an already tight supply will become even further undersupplied.

Trading Economics data shows that farmers in Cote d’Ivoire have exported 348,560 metric tons of cocoa between October 1 and November 12. That is a 25.3% reduction over the same period last year.

Further price spikes are being forecast by industry analysts as an El Nino weather phenomenon appears poised to further reduce global supplies. The El Nino event is expected to create drought conditions in West Africa in the coming months, which will reduce outputs of the bitter beans. In addition the market is seeing global demand increase with Europe, Brazil, and Cote d’Ivoire all seeing increases in processing demand in recent months.

According to an estimate by the Global Cocoa Organization (ICCO), there will be a deficit of 116,000 metric tons of cocoa in the global market for the current growing season underway, which runs from October 2022 to September 2023.