On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that analysts are saying that the continuing economic downturn in the Eurozone is a sign the bloc may end up heading into a recession by the end of the year, based on current private sector activity surveys.
S&P Global has reported that the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in the Eurozone continued its contraction in November, dropping to 47.1 points, marking the sixth month in a row in which it registered below the critical 50 measurement separating contraction from expansion. The trend was the same for both manufacturing and services.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Hamburg Commercial Bank chief economist Cyrus de la Rubia said, “The Eurozone economy is stuck in the mud,” with everything pointing to “a second consecutive quarter of shrinking GDP” following a 0.1% drop in the GDP for the last quarter. Two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP constitutes a technical recession.
de la Rubia noted that the Eurozone’s two largest economies, Germany and France, are both, “in the grip of considerable weakness.” He noted that Germany remains “in recession territory,” even though its contraction eased somewhat in November and its private sector activity shrank at a slower pace than in October. He predicted its economy may remain in contraction until next year.
France’s conditions were even worse, with its PMI remaining roughly the same at 44.5. Weak demand is afflicting both manufacturing and services, with unused business capacity increasing sharply, and producing the first fall in private sector employment in three years. Another economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, Norman Liebke noted that this was leaving the French economy “in a kind of a dead-end.”
de la Rubia added that with both France and Germany seeing inflation continuing to remain far above target levels, and unlikely to decline anytime soon, their economies can be expected to be weighed down for the foreseeable future.