On Tuesday,  business daily Kommersant reported that Russia is likely to increase the volume of its oil exports in November, according to an analysis from Kpler.

The report said that the nation’s seaborne shipments of crude oil are about to surge by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November over October’s daily volumes, reaching as high as 3.7 million bpd, which would be the highest daily volumes seen since May of this year.

The report noted that this surge in exports will occur as several Russian refineries are being shut down for routine maintenance, which will force the companies to redirect the oil which would have fed those refineries overseas, as exports.

However the report notes that the repairs are expected to be completed by mid-November, at which point the refineries would begin to ramp up their consumption, which would mean Russia’s oil exports would then drop from December going forward.

Kpler experts noted that another reason there may be an increase in exports would be the surge in global crude prices. Moscow would want to take advantage of the price environment given Russia has been forced to redirect oil shipments to Asian markets due to Western sanctions imposed over the conflict in Ukraine, as well as a price cap imposed on the nation’s seaborne crude oil cargoes.

Russia also began to reduce its export volumes in an effort to support global prices, which at that time had fallen to about $72 per barrel. However since that time, crude prices have recovered as Saudi Arabia reduced supplies, and the conflict in Israel has escalated, and threatened to spread to nearby regions and possibly affect Iranian output, and/or shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Presently global benchmark Brent crude is trading at about $88 per barrel.

It is also possible additional crude could be redirected for export due to a seasonal decline in demand within Russia for fuels, as well as the nation’s restrictions on the export of diesel and gasoline.