On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that according to both Saudi and US sources, OPEC major Saudi Arabia is considering increasing its production of crude earlier next year in an effort to secure a defense pact with the United States.
The United States and Riyadh have been in talks about inking a three-way deal between Washington, the kingdom, and US ally Israel. The deal would see Saudi Arabia officially recognize the state of Israel. and in return receive a formal defense pact with the United States. The deal would also include the United States aiding the kingdom in establishing a civilian nuclear program, and would entail the sale of billions of dollars of new American weapons to Riyadh.
The report said that negotiations over the deal have been stalling due to Washington’s displeasure over the soaring prices of oil, due in large part to voluntary production output cuts imposed by Riyadh earlier in the year. In addition, OPEC+, a group of major oil producers including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia and including allies such as Russia, agreed last October to implement production output cuts through the end of 2023. Combined with other actions to support prices taken independently by actors such as Russia, global crude prices have been increasing of late, causing a rise in the price of gasoline in the US.
The Biden administration has been attempting to pressure Saudi Arabia to abandon the cuts it has imposed and increase global supplies, so prices can fall, but so far Riyadh has ignored the efforts of the US. Just this week, Riyadh reaffirmed its decision to adhere to its voluntary output cuts until the end of this year. Although the output cuts are presently set to expire at the end of the year, OPEC+ has another meeting scheduled for the end of November, where it will look at production levels, and possibly decide to continue the cuts, or even impose additional production cuts to support prices.
It has been reported that Washington hopes to finalize the deal with Israel and Riyadh within six months, given that all of the basic elements of the deal have already been agreed on by all three sides. However according to reports, Washington has attempted to pressure Riyadh by claiming that Congress may not approve the deal unless the kingdom does more to increase the supply of crude and lower global prices.
Sources in Riyadh say that the government’s negotiators, although willing to consider increasing supply, have said the government bases all production decisions on the state of the market at the time they are made.