On Wednesday, a rout in Treasuries extended, as yields for five year maturities and beyond rose to levels not seen in 16 years as traders worried a strong jobs report could signal higher rates.
The yields on ten-year Treasuries increased by 4.8 basis points (bps) to 4.8503%, the highest seen since 2007. Both five-year and thirty-year yields also hit 16-year highs.
Yields increase as the prices of bonds fall. Since the end of August, selling pushed the 10-year yield up 75 bps.
Rabobank strategist Michael Every said, “Another month like that and it will hit a high not seen since 2001.”
An unexpected increase in US job openings in August set off a new wave of selling, as traders are growing concerned that labor data due to be released on Friday may show continued strength in the labor market and give the Federal Reserve impetus to maintain higher interest rates, or even raise them further in the coming months.
The focus of selling at the larger tenors has bear steepened the bond curve, reducing the inversion between 2 and 10-year rates to 31 bps, lowering it from over 100 bps in July.
Mel Siew, portfolio manager at Muzinich & Co in Singapore said, “The feedback we’re getting is that … it’s difficult to allocate away from the front end.”
The move in the markets has happened without any change in the expectations for inflation, so as the 10-year real yields have hit their highest levels since 2008, real assets like emerging market currencies and global equities have stalled or fallen.
Meanwhile in spite of heavy buying from the Bank of Japan, Japanese yields reached 10-year highs, as the 10-year yield in Indonesia increased, despite the fact the Indonesian central bank intervened there as well.