Oil’s rise to $100 per barrel was paused on Monday, as the effects of a strengthening dollar, which made crude more expensive for many buyers even as the price in dollars was weighed down, counteracted the effects of a rapidly tightening market.

After slipping 0.4% on Monday, West Texas Intermediate held steady at $90 per barrel. Large premiums for some physical crude cargoes and surges in some closely-watched timespreads all pointed to a growing tightness in the market. However as the dollar neared its strongest position of the year, it tempered these effects, as did the likelihood that US interest rates will stay elevated higher for longer.

Since the end of June, oil has risen 27% following supply cuts imposed by major OPEC+ producers Saudi Arabia and Russia., as it has headed toward its largest quarterly gain since early 2002. Lately this has sparked talk of a return to $100 per barrel prices, however recently oil’s gains lost their momentum as traders have grown concerned about the macro backdrop.

Vandana Hari, founder of consultancy Vanda Insights said, “The breathless rally of recent weeks has run out of steam after factoring in the major bullish indicators. But at the same time, there are no compelling factors to exert significant downward pressure.”

Regardless, the forward curve of oil indicates a growing supply deficit. The prompt timespread for WTI has reached $1.55 per barrel in backwardation, a bullish pattern which is now over double the level it was on September 15th.

Any further drop in the stockpiles of US crude will help to drive crude prices even higher. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry-funded group will report its figures, and a day later the Energy Information Administration will weigh in with its data. There is a possibility that the inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, a key hub, could come in at the lowest levels in almost a decade.