On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that tanker tracking data shows Russian seaborne shipments of oil hitting a three month high last week, even as Moscow extended restrictions on production and export, and Western sanctions remain in effect,
The report noted that average nationwide shipments by Russia in the four weeks to September 17 rose to 3.34 million barrels per day (bpd) which was roughly 465,000 barrels over what was shipped in the four weeks to August 20th. While shipments had returned to the levels last seen in February of this year, they continued to be roughly 390,000 bpd less that the highs of April and June. The Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea saw the largest increases.
Most of the surge in exports came from tankers which showed no final destination. Industry experts say that most such shipments end up in India and China. On average, over the four week period the total shipments of crude bound for China, India, “unknown Asia,” and “other unknown” destinations reached 2.7 million bpd.
Over the reporting period, seaborne crude exports from Russia to the EU came in at 146,000 bpd, remaining unchanged. Again, the only destination for these shipments was Bulgaria. exports to Türkiye hit the highest readings since June at 220,000 bpd.
Bloomberg noted that an increase in Russian shipments “was to be expected,” since Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had announced last month that although Moscow was extending its restriction on export volumes, it was cutting the reduction in exports from 500,000 bpd to 300,000 bpd in August. Bloomberg noted however that the increases in shipments were over twice what would have been expected from that change.
Russia originally announced it would be voluntarily restricting its total exports of oil by 500,000 bpd in February. It made the decision as a result of Western sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine, such as a $60 per-barrel price cut on Russian oil. In response Russian redirected its exports to new trading partners who were willing to violate the sanctions, mostly in Asia, where China and India have shown a robust demand for discounted Russian seaborne crude.
