British energy regulator Ofgem has released an analysis showing that UK households are facing the prospect of high energy costs this winter heating season, even in spite of the energy price cap falling below £2,000 ($2,512) per year for the first time in 18 months.

An average family should now plan on paying an average of £1,923 from October to December, a decline of roughly £150. However, even though the costs of the energy have fallen, families may end up paying more due to the £400 government support given to all homes last winter being withdrawn for the upcoming heating season.

As a result, the average home can expect to pay almost twice as much for their electricity and gas as they did before the beginning of the energy crisis last year.

This week, Ofgem CEO Jonathan Brearley said, “It is welcome news that the price cap continues to fall; however, we know people are struggling with the wider cost of living challenges and I can’t offer any certainty that things will ease this winter.”

He warned in an interview with Sky News that families are “absolutely going to struggle” to pay their bills this winter, and emphasizing that the government should offer vulnerable customers the assistance they need, in conjunction with the regulator and suppliers. Brearl noted it would be “helpful” if the government were to reintroduce the subsidies.

The regulator is not the only entity predicting there will be difficulties during the coming heating season. Citizens Advice, the charity, has said that this coming winter may be “as bad, if not worse,” than the last winter, as it implored the government to step in.