Moody’s RMS is estimating that the damage from the deadliest wildfire the United States has ever seen, which killed more than 100 people and swept through countless homes and businesses in Hawaii, may range from $4 billion to $6 billion.
On Tuesday, the company, which specializes in global catastrophe and risk modelling/analysis, said that the estimate is reflective of both direct and indirect losses due to damage to physical assets. It does not factor in the fire’s impact on the gross domestic product of Hawaii, government spending on the catastrophe’s response, or the social cost of the fires.
The estimate looked at property damage, loss of belongings and contents of properties, business interruption, and it examined those factors among residential, commercial, industrial, automobile, and infrastructure assets.
The report noted the losses will be concentrated around the historic town of Lahaina, where more than 2,000 acres were lost to the fire, along with nearly 2,000 structures. Moody’s noted rebuilding will drive up inflation in construction and materials during what will undoubtedly be a long recovery process. It was estimated that insurance will likely cover about 75% or more of the damage, since Hawaii has a high percentage of insurance uptake, and wildfires are typically covered under normal policies.
The vice-president of modeling at Moody’s RMS, Rajkiran Vojjala said, “Post-event loss amplification is expected to be high in this event due to the island effect on supply chains, high construction labor costs in general, inflationary impacts during the expected long recovery time, and potential ordinance and law requirements.”
The wildfires on Maui were the most deadly seen in the US in over a century. As of Tuesday, according to Maui county officials, at least 115 people are confirmed to have died, and roughly 1,100 are still missing.