The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) is upgrading its forecasts for the harvest of grain in Russia, noting that Russian farmers are now projected to harvest as much as 137 million tons of grain, with 88 million tons being wheat.

In an interview with RIA Novosti on Tuesday, IKAR CEO Dmitry Rylko said, “The forecast for the wheat crop has been increased by 1.5 million (tons) to 88 million tons, while the estimate of gross grain harvest is expected to rise to 137 million tons.”

IKAR analysts also raised the export capacity assessment, predicting foreign sales of grain would amount to 61 million tons, with 47.5 million tons being wheat.

The consultancy’s previous forecast was upgraded based on new crop production numbers released by Rosstat, the Russian national statistics agency.

Russia’s agriculture ministry had estimated earlier in 2023 that the current agricultural year (July 2022 to June 2023) would see grain output  amounting to 123 million tons, of which 78 million tons would be wheat.

The ministry added however that it was still possible the estimated output could be upgraded, and that the 2022-23 agricultural year’s export potential was presently sitting at roughly 55 million tons.

Russian farmers harvested 157 million tons of grain and pulse crops last year, which was an increase of almost 30%, year over year. The wheat harvest alone rose 37% to 104 million tons, after a harvest of 76.1 million tons in 2021. In 2022, Russia accounted for one out of every five export batches of wheat in the world.