Photo of Jim Cramer courtesy of Tulane Public Relations licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.
Jim Cramer of CNBC discounted the liklihood of a recession, saying he doesn’t see any real evidence to support the contention that there is a recession lurking right around the corner.
Cramer noted, that the earnings reports that we have seen thus far have shown that in several key sectors, such as homebuilding, banking, and travel and leisure, their results are not consistent with the idea that a recession is as inevitable as other analysts are claiming.
Cramer argued, “Those who cling to the notion that we’re about to enter recession must find all of these examples daunting, if not depressing. But earnings season has shown the recession thesis just doesn’t hold up under close scrutiny, even if so many so-called experts tell us otherwise.”
Cramer noted there are unusual aspects of the present conditions which make this period unique. As an example, he noted homebuilders would normally have endured a massive hit to their bottom line from the tightening of monetary policy being enacted by the Federal Reserve. However due to the housing shortage, they have instead performed well. He also noted that airlines have enjoyed a “roaring bull market,” and that is yet another indicator that there may not be a recession. He also pointed out that even as PepsiCo has raised its prices, it has not seen a trade-down.
Cramer added, “Suffice it to say, you’re not supposed to get this kind of action at this point in a rate hike cycle. When the Fed tightens, we expect it to crush the commerce and that just hasn’t really happened.”
Cramer also noted that the nation’s top banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley, all enjoyed fantastic quarters. However he pointed to Bank of America in particular, whose revenues beat all expectations. He noted that kind of a boom in banking would not be possible, unless the average citizens were still flush with savings.
He said, “If the bears were right about the inevitable recession, it’d be the opposite: a strapped consumer, out of cash and hanging on by her fingertips Defaults are minimal, including defaults in the dreaded commercial real estate space, which I keep telling you was a well overdone crisis.”