The heady days when commodities traders could rely on the Chinese economy to offer a foundation of demand for metals like copper, aluminum, and iron ore are no more, according to Jeffries LLC.

As China’s population begins to fall and geopolitical challenges begin to act against the nation, longer-term demand for those metals will now come predominantly from the US and Europe, according to a team of Jeffries’ analysts led by Christopher LaFemina, in a recent note.

In the note they wrote, “China is more likely to be a headwind than a tailwind for demand over the next decade.” They went on the point out that the Chinese super cycle, which had previously been driven by urbanization and industrialization has come to an end, and the nation will now begin a phase of energy transition and decarbonization.

Asia’s largest economy had offered a crucial support to the metals markets in the course of the last two to three decades, as the nation engaged in a binge of infrastructure-building. However the sputtering post-virus recovery of the nation’s economy has shown China now may lack the economic horsepower required to support global demand, as it begins the transition to a more service-oriented economy.

The dynamic has been observable in the markets so far this year, as most metals have continued to fall in value, even as China fully abandoned its Covid Zero policies late last year.

On Friday, iron ore fell 0.7% as of 12:46 pm Singapore time, hitting $110.85, leaving it down 2.3% for the week. The critical steel-making element has now lost all of the gains it had made earlier in they year as optimism over China’s recovery has gradually given way to reality.

Copper has fallen 0.5% to $8,534 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, as the key bellwether of industrial activity has traded just slightly higher than it was trading at the start of the year. Aluminum fell about 3% over the week, and has been declining since late January.