On Monday, the price of natural gas in the EU plunged after spiking last week, continuing a pattern of volatility amid reserve storage facilities that are rapidly approaching full capacity, and concerns related to supply risks and hot weather.
Futures for July at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub in the Netherlands dropped by 13.8% in the course of morning trading. The benchmark Dutch front-month contract fell to €30.18 per megawatt hour (MWh), or $346.39 per 1,000 cubic meters. However maintenance at gas facilities in Norway has still kept prices elevated by 15% this month.
Last weeks price spike was triggered by fears that hot weather would increase electricity usage and demand for LNG, while unplanned outages in Norway would put the EU in competition for limited supplies.
In a note, analysts at Engie’s EnergyScan said, “Until EU gas stocks are full, European day-ahead and month-ahead gas prices have significant upside potential, which is reflective of competition between uses: current demand, mainly from power generators, versus storage injection demand.”
Persistent concerns over supplies remain, although prices have fallen somewhat of late. Short-term demand among households and businesses could spike at any time due to a sudden burst of warmer weather, however longer-term risks remain with regard to supplies for the bloc ahead of the next winter heating season.
In a note on Friday, analysts at Inspired Energy remarked that the current volatility in the gas market has “highlighted complications for traders” causing many to question whether the energy crisis continues to remain severe enough to justify continuing to import LNG cargoes over the summer.
According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, storage facilities in the EU are presently at 74% of full capacity.