On Wednesday the Federal Reserve made no change in its benchmark interest rate’s target range, however it suggested there would be more changes coming later this year.
The Fed funds rate was maintained at a range of 5%-5.25%, marking the first pause in the Fed’s campaign of interest rate hikes which has been ongoing for a year now as the regulator has sought to quell persistent inflation.
The Fed also revealed its updated economic forecasts in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including its “dot plot,” which lays out the expectations of policymakers with regard to where interest rates could head in the future.
The latest dot plot indicates rates will continue to rise in 2023.
Although Fed officials had previously projected in March that the fed funds rate would peak at 5.1%, it is now projected to reach 5.6% this year. That suggests policymakers will raise rates by 0.25% twice more this year, or raise it in one move by 0.50%
Three officials are predicting at least 0.75% worth of additional rate hikes this year.
Fed officials now see interest rates dropping to 4.6% in 2024, which is higher than the estimate in March for next year, which was 4.3%.
The SEP reported the Federal Reserve projects Core inflation peaking at 3.9% this year, which would be above March’s estimate of 3.6%. From there it would cool to 2.6% next year and 2.2% in 2025.
Officials project unemployment lifting to 4.1% this year, which is under the previous 4.5% prediction. Unemployment is projected to rise slightly, to 4.5% next year and remain there through 2025.
The Fed is also predicting a slightly stronger run of economic growth, with this year predicted to see economic growth of 1%, compared to the estimate in March of 0.4%. From there it will increase to 1.1% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.