Oil’s losses are being extended as concerns persist over the demand outlook in a slowing global economy, leading Goldman Sachs Group to lower its price forecast yet again.
After suffering the largest weekly drop since the beginning of May last week, Brent futures were trading around $73 per barrel. Goldman revised its price estimate for the global benchmark downward for the third time in six months. It cut its estimate to $86 for year’s end, due to supplies rising and demand waning.
In London, oil is off by roughly 15% this year, due to fears of a downturn in the US economy, the weakness of China’s economic recovery, and exceedingly robust Russian crude flows all weighing on the outlook. It has become increasingly clear that even Saudi Arabia’s recent pledge to unilaterally cut it production output by one million barrels per day has failed to support prices, as traders grow increasingly unresponsive. Brent’s nearest timespread headed toward a flip into a bearish contango structure, signaling oversupply on Monday.
Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultant Oilytics said, “Oil prices started the week on further bearish momentum. It’s not just macro fears that are dragging oil prices down but also physical market weakness as prompt Brent flirts with contango yet again.”
There are signs of potential bullishness, however. Bullish bets made by hedge funds on Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude in the week ended June 6th increased. And there are expectations the US Federal Reserve will forgo an interest rate hike at their next meeting, following a year of steady increases, which is expected to trigger enthusiasm in the economy and buoy demand.