As sales of Bud Light continue to decline, shares of parent company Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) are following suit.
Nielsen just released new data showing sales of Bud Light have declined 24.3% year over year on the week ending May 20th. During the same period, Budweiser sales were down 20.4%. During the previous week, sales were down 21.6% and 17.6% respectively for the two brands. Following a disastrous advertising faux pas with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney, Bud Light sales have now declined every week over the last six weeks according to Nielsen data.
ABInBev shares were down almost 5% Tuesday, marking the worst intraday fall for the stock since Mulvaney’s fated social media post on the first of April. Since the post, ABInBev shares fell almost 18%.
Some analysts say if the current controversy were to blow over at some point in the future, it is possible the current pricing might offer a buying opportunity. Citi analyst Simon Hales said in a note to clients, “There continues to be contagion to the wider ABInBev brand portfolio, with Budweiser, Busch and Michelob all weak again. Meanwhile, Coors Light continue to see share gains accelerate. The latest data shows little sign that consumers are moving on from the Bud Light controversy, and we expect these issues will continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Nevertheless, we believe the pullback creates an interesting entry point for longer-term investors.”
Citi expects the declines in sales of ABInBev products to “continue to dominate news flow and weigh on short-term investor sentiment.” However it maintains the shares are still oversold, when one considers the company’s overall business.
ABInBev is attempting to make this case itself, such as in early May, when its full year EBITDA guidance issued was roughly in line with its previously stated goals.
Following the report’s release, CEO Michel Dimitrios Doukeris did not sound particularly panicked. He said, “With respect to the current situation and the impact of Bud Light sales, it is too early to have a full view. The Bud Light volume decline in the US over the first 3 weeks of April, as publicly reported, would represent around 1% of our overall global volumes for that period.”
Although Bud Light sales are down, Americans are not drinking less beer. Beer sales growth was up 1.9% for the week ending May 20th.
Other brands, meanwhile are enjoying healthy growth, as beer drinkers seek alternatives to Budweiser and Bud Light. Coors and Coors Light saw sales increases of 25.3% and 24.4% respectively over the same week. Molson Coors (TAP) shares soared almost 20% this year, with the majority of the gains coming since the Bud Light controversy kicked off.
Wedbush Securities consumer equity research analyst Gerald Pascarelli said in an interview, “When you have outsized shifts to volumes like this, it’s not so much what happens to the category. It’s who benefits. And Molson Coors is clearly the outsized beneficiary here.”
When Molson Coors issued guidance with its quarterly earnings release on May 2nd, it did not attribute its gains to the controversy, but Pascarelli said given when the gains began, it is likely they will see a “full quarter” of the benefits.
Pascarelli noted that the data from the Memorial Day weekend will be key, since the longer the declining sales trend lasts, the more ABInBev will tend to accumulate excess inventory at both its location and at distributors. Any lagging inventory buildup could lead to promotions and a pricing war among beers later in the summer.
Pascarelli said, “These next few months during the summer selling season are going to be absolutely key. When you look at Bud Light, I don’t know how long this is going to happen. There’s no real historical precedent for something like this. … I think the sentiment is people don’t know how long it’s going to last.”
