The world is at the cusp of geo-economic fragmentation, according the the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and she is warning this could pour more “cold water” on the world’s already sputtering economies.
Kristalina Georgieva said via video link at the Brussels Economic Forum Wednesday that the world must engage in more cooperation, due to the economic growth across the globe being so incredibly weak by historical standards.
The IMF chief said, “After decades of increasing global integration, there is a growing risk that the world may split into rival economic blocs. And that’s a scenario that would be bad for everyone, including for people in Europe.”
Noting that growth prospects are increasingly bleak given the weakness in global economic growth, both near and medium term, she pointed out, “And yet, central bankers cannot take their eyes off the ball until stubborn inflation is firmly under control. The required monetary tightening is weighing on growth and exposing some financial vulnerabilities.”
Growth is projected to be roughly 3% over the course of the next five years, marking the poorest medium term forecast in over three decades.
She went on to argue that multilateral cooperation will prove vital for long-term growth everywhere, as she warned that trade fragmentation might cost as much as 7% in global economic growth over the long term.
She added that such a loss would be, “roughly equivalent to the combined annual output of Germany and Japan,” and that GDP losses in some nations could end up being as high as 12%, if technological decoupling occurs as well.
She emphasized, “We cannot ignore these costs.”
In the past the IMF chief has noted the shocks the global economy has endured over the past few years, from the Covid pandemic, to the conflict in the Ukraine, to the spikes in interest rates following years of loose monetary policy, and how all of them have weighed down the global economy.