On Tuesday, a new report from the German statistics agency Destatis revealed that in March Germany’s retail sales dropped, contrary to market expectations.
Price-adjusted retail turnover was down by 2.4% for March compared to February, despite analyst expectations it would yield a 0.4% rise. Yearly, sales fell 8.6% in real terms, after a 7.1% decline in February.
Food sales dropped 10.3% in March, producing the largest year on year fall since Destatis began keeping data in 1994. Food retail shrank 1.1% for the month, while non-food sales were off by 2.3%. Online sales fell 8.4%. High prices continue to weigh down the inflation-adjusted retail data, however nominal sales are falling as well, pointing to an overall decline in German household consumption.
Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts warned in a report, “We doubt the downside surprise in the March retail sales report will lead to any revisions.”
Market analysts noted at the end of the first quarter, consumer spending was under pressure in Germany, which would be consistent with the preliminary GDP and inflation report showing zero growth in the first quarter.
Economists are warning that the loss of German prosperity seen over the previous year is producing weaker consumption, and that trend is likely only beginning. They note the cost of living crisis shows little sign of abating, especially as Germany will head into a new winter later this year, with a continuing shortage of energy supplies, a naturally tight European market for natural gas now that the Russian supplies are off-limits, and without the Nord Stream pipelines to help refill the nation’s winter reserves.