As next winter approaches, Bloomberg is reporting that the prices of natural gas are expected to surge, creating the risk of a new energy crunch for the bloc according to industry analysts.
Experts like Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart are predicting the price of gas futures may surpass €100 ($110) per megawatt hour, or over $1,000 per thousand cubic meters, compared to the current €40 ($44) per megawatt hour, according to the Bloomberg report.
At the sidelines of the Flame gas conference in Amsterdam she was quoted as saying, “Early winter cold is the scariest thing,” adding that prices rising above €100 were “very realistic.”
She emphasized that weak demand would likely delay the rally in prices Goldman had previously said would occur in August.
Last year in August, EU gas futures rose to a record high of €345 ($380) per megawatt hour. However conservation strategies combined with weak Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) demand for China as well as an unusually moderate winter to drive prices down to their current levels. However experts note, these factors may not remain in play. With China’s economy coming back online, complacency among consumers, including businesses, power plants, and household consumers, could produce a tighter market in later 2023.
Experts at oil trader Vitol say the market will likely remain tight until after 2026, when new supplies of LNG are likely to come online and reach the market. Head of short term trading at Vitol, Stuart Sanders said the market “is going to be far more vulnerable to risks.”
Last year, amid Western sanctions and geopolitical maneuvering, there was a precipitous drop in Russian energy supplies reaching the market. The disruptions culminated in the sabotage bombings of the Nord Stream pipelines by actors who remain unidentified, eliminating the entirely of their flows. As a result over the summer, gas prices in Europe surpassed their previous peak historic prices of €345 ($380) per megawatt hour.