As investors begin to conclude the Federal Reserve may have to take interest rates higher and faster in its battle with rising prices, the pressure is growing on the outlook for energy demand. This week that has sent oil on its biggest weekly loss since early February.
For a fourth session, West Texas Intermediate futures dropped toward $75 per barrel, marking a loss of about 5% this week. As investors waited to get a glimpse of the jobs numbers this Friday to look for further clues on what conclusion the Fed will come to on rate hikes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spooked markets with his hawkish tone this week, which did not generate optimism.
Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV, said, “A strong report would likely intensify expectations of a more hawkish Fed,” before noting that weaker stocks have only increased the pressure on the oil market.
The bearish outlook on rate hikes has temporarily overwhelmed any optimism over the recovery in China following the nation’s turn away from its Covid-zero policies. China’s reopening has already begun to increase the costs of shipping crude. Meanwhile, Shell Plc is predicting oil prices will now rise over the coming months as China’s reopening fuels a record level of global demand.
So far this year, oil has had a bumpy ride, as optimism over a global recovery led by China’s reopening has bounced off pessimism over macroeconomic conditions, persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and fears of a global economic slowdown, or even a recession.
Traders are also watching flows from Russia, where sanctions have failed to prevent Russian supplies from finding buyers and making their way onto the global markets.