The February meeting minutes of the US Federal Reserve were released on Wednesday, and they show policymakers continuing to be concerned about inflation, despite the recent modest reductions in it.

The policymakers noted the inflation rate was showing signs of improvement, however the meeting minutes showed that policymakers felt it was not enough to allow the regulator to begin easing monetary policy

The minutes made note of the fact inflation “remained well above” the Fed’s 2% target rate, and labor markets “remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices.”

The minutes said, “Participants noted that inflation data received over the past three months showed a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases but stressed that substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was on a sustained downward path.” The minutes concluded that ongoing rate hikes will continue to be necessary.

At the meeting policymakers settled on a 25 basis point rate hike, which brought the key rate into a range of 4.5%-4.75%.

The minutes indicated officials were divided on the issue of the size of the next rate hike at the March 21-22 meeting. In an interview, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard leaned toward a more aggressive rate hike, to help rein in inflation at a faster pace.

He said, “It has become popular to say, ‘Let’s slow down and feel our way to where we need to be.’ We still haven’t gotten to the point where the committee put the so-called terminal rate… You’ll know when you’re there when the next move could be up or down. Our risk now is inflation doesn’t come down and reaccelerates, and then what do you do? Let’s be sharp now, let’s get inflation under control in 2023.”

In January inflation cooled somewhat, up 0.5% from December, and 6.4% annually. Analysts are predicting another 25 basis point hike at the March meeting, with two more later in the year, which would bring the key rate into a range of 5.25%-5.5%.

Experts warn however that the main risk is if the regulator raises rates too quickly, triggering a sudden downturn in the market, which could spiral into a more sustained downturn, or even a recession. For that reason, some policymakers have indicated it might be wise to pause the rate hikes at some point, to look for any delayed effects, indicating further tightening might not be necessary.

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