In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management said that inflation in the US will likely prove to be “far stickier” and longer lasting then analysts are presently predicting.
He made the comments just ahead of the US Labor Department’s much anticipated inflation report which showed inflation grew 6.4% year over year.
Smead said, “The enthusiasm… right now is the hope that we’ll get a friendly Fed out of a soft landing, and we do not believe that is going to be the case.”
He went on, “We think the inflation is going to be far stickier and longer-lasting – in fact, a decade, because in the United States, we have incredibly favorable demographics.”
At the beginning of this month, the Federal Reserve had hiked the benchmark rate by 25 basis points. Michelle Bowman, the Fed Governor, has said that to bring the inflation rate back down to the 2% target rate the regulator is looking for, the central bank will need to continue to raise rates.
However Smead says even with the recent hikes in interest rates, the Fed is going to find it difficult to bring inflation back into line.
He noted, “We have 92 million people between 22 and 42, and they’re all going to spend their money on necessities the next 10 years, whether the stock markets are good or bad. They’re just going to be living their life. The economy should be pretty good and the Fed’s going to have a hard time controlling inflation.”
On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported the consumer price index (CPI), a measure of the state of prices across dozens of goods and services spanning the economy which is widely viewed as a gauge of inflation, was up 0.5% in January. Core CPI, which excludes the highly volatile food and energy measures, was up 0.4%.