The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank issued new research showing that just over half of US states are experiencing slowing economic activity, and that might be a sign of a looming recession.

The report, released in December, noted that historically, when 26 states exhibit declining economic readings, there can be “reasonable confidence” the nation is on track to enter a recession overall.

In October, twenty-seven states showed declining economic activity, which is a reliable indicator of a looming national economic downturn, according to the authors of the report. They noted that the short and sharp recession seen in the spring of 2020 was preceded by 35 states that showed signs of declining economic activity.

The report comes after the San Francisco Fed issued a report indicating there was a rising risk the US economy was heading into a recession in the upcoming months.

That report pointed out that unemployment rates bottom out, and then begin to climb in a highly predictable pattern just ahead of an economic recession. Once noted, the pattern indicates the recession will begin in eight months.

The report went on to show the US Federal Reserve has predicted the unemployment rate will rise to 4.6% this year. It noted if the Fed’s forecast is correct, “such an increase would trigger a recession prediction based on the unemployment rate.”

Economists have been voicing concerns over a looming economic recession lately, mostly based on the hawkish policy moves of the Federal Reserve as it has raised rates aggressively in an attempt to gain control over rapidly rising prices.

In December Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that because the central bank expected growth would remain positive, he did not see the regulator’s present outlook as a recession prediction.

Powell said, “I don’t think anyone knows whether we’re going to have a recession or not and, if we do, whether it’s going to be a deep one or not. It’s just, it’s not knowable.”