On Monday Reuters reported that the US is selling a record 3.45 million barrels of crude oil per day to other nations, putting the nation on track to become a net exporter of crude oil in 2023.
The report also noted that official data shows that exports of refined products, such as gasoline and diesel fuel have reached roughly 3 million barrels per day. Additionally, the US is now the leading exporter of liquified natural gas (LNG). That segment is expected to see growth explode in the coming years, especially now that Europe has been mostly cut off from cheap Russian pipeline gas.
Presently the US is the largest consumer of crude oil in the world, utilizing 20 million barrels per day. However it has never produced more than 13 million barrels per day. Since WWII, America has never exported more than it imported, however it appears that may change starting next year. Reuters noted, “Until recently, the idea that it [US] would be anything but a big crude importer was folly.”
US crude imports dropped last month however, to 1.1 million barrels per day, which was the lowest since 2001, when such records began being kept. Reuters attributed the decline to Western sanctions on Russian energy exports, as well as Washington releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to drive down the price of oil.
According to data from the analytics firm Kpler, the loss of Russian oil has forced European refiners to purchase US crude to offset the loss. Asian refiners have also increased their purchasing of American crude due to the lower prices per barrel relative to other global benchmarks.
The report does note however that US consumption is poised to rise to 20.51 million barrels per day in 2023, so the nation will need to either curtail consumption or or boost production in order to become a net exporter.
Also noted in the report is that it does not appear US shale will be a solution, as the shale fields’ output has been anemic due to the fields age and investment waning. The report predicts that the US could produce 12.34 million barrels per day next year, but only if prices remain elevated, and drillers are motivated to invest in production.
The US seized the title of largest exporter of LNG in the first half of 2022, eclipsing Qatar and Australia. Kpler predicts US exports will continue to rise next year as Europe scrambles to fill depleted reserves in the absence of Russian gas flows.
The report also notes that it is still possible exports could suffer if the world were to enter a global recession, curtailing demand. Also if the US relaxes sanctions on Venezuela further, and that country’s exports rise, it could drive prices down and further hamper the US position in the market.
