RH (RH) CEO Gary Friedman gave a blunt assessment of the US Housing market’s pullback on the company’s latest earnings call. Talking with analysts, Friedman said, “It’s just a lot of uncertainty right now. But one thing I’m certain of: The housing market is collapsing at a level I haven’t seen since 2008. I haven’t seen this kind of drop since 2008.”
The shift in the market was clearly apparent in RH’s third quarter report.
Sales fell to 869 million, a drop of 13.6% from one year prior, as net profits were cut 50%, inventories were up $86 million from the beginning of the year, and RH’s home furnishings sales fell off a cliff.
For a record ninth consecutive month, national sales of previously owned homes were down in October due to rising mortgage rates increasing borrowing costs and driving potential buyers from the market.
New home construction was also down as housing demand pushed back on builder activity. According to government data, residential housing starts fell to a 1.43 million annualized rate, a decrease of 4.2% in October. Starts for construction on single family homes fell to an annualized 855,000 rate, a low not seen since May of 2020.
Following Friedman’s warning on the state of the market, some Wall Street analysts were worried not only about the profit potential of RH, but about the entirety of the home furnishings sector.
Guggenheim analyst Steven Forbes wrote in a note, “Combined with the fact that RH will be operating against difficult multi-year demand comps through 1H 2023, we see meaningful risk to consensus expectations.”