A renown bear, Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson is once again predicting a market downturn, saying the rally which the markets have been enjoying of late is reaching its endpoint, and there will soon be a reversal of the trends.
In a new note Monday, he wrote, “As predicted, falling interest rates at the back end have led to modest, further gains for this bear market rally. However, with last week’s price action, the S&P 500 is now right into our original tactical target range of 4000-4150. While the index has modestly exceeded its 200-day moving average and the breadth continues to expand, the downtrend from the beginning of the year remains in place. This makes the risk-reward of playing for more upside quite poor at this point, and we are now sellers again.”
Wilson does have a record of success in his predictions. He correctly predicted the market’s bounce several weeks back, telling investors there would be a respite from the storm.
Since then the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) have risen 6% and 7% respectively, as the Dow Jones has lifted 5%.
The gains were laid on as the US dollar pulled back, and investors saw signs inflation might have peaked, and the Federal Reserve indicated it was ready to slow its rate of interest rate hikes.
However now the recent jobs report came in hotter than expected, which is making investors wonder if a more hawkish Fed is waiting in the wings. In addition, China is in the midst of a mix of Covid-lockdowns and sometimes violent protests, all as it is battling a new outbreak of the virus.
Wilson went on to advise, “Stay defensively oriented (Healthcare, Utilities, Staples) as rates are likely to fall further into next year as growth and inflation continue to slow. Growth stocks are unlikely to benefit from falling rates from here given risk to earnings, especially for tech and consumer-oriented businesses which are large weights in growth indices.”
Wilson is not the only analyst feeling cautious as he survey’s the future outlook.
Goldman Sachs has predicted zero earnings growth for S&P 500 companies next year, and predicts the index overall will go nowhere.
Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann said, “We remain relatively defensive for the three-month horizon with further headwinds from rising real yields likely and lingering growth uncertainty.”
