In a new note to clients, Goldman Sachs is telling investors to not rely on the current rally to recoup their losses, predicting a market bottom will not occur until 2023. The bank cites “typically consistent” indicators as indicative of a bear market which is nowhere near over.

In a note to clients, the bank’s analysts wrote, “We continue to think that the near-term path for equity markets is likely to be volatile and down before reaching a final trough in 2023.”

The analysts noted that while stock prices have fallen due to rising interest rates so far this year, the market has yet to price in the diminishing business and earnings losses that businesses are suffering as the economy moves into a recession.

The bank predicted that the S&P 500 will end 2023 at 4,000 points, which would mark just a 9% gain off Friday’s close. They predicted the European benchmark Stoxx 600 would finish the year up by roughly 4% at 450 index points.

Their projections come on the heels of a recent rally in the markets which was triggered by a softer than expected inflation reading, which investors hope will mark a shift in the recently hawkish policies of the US Federal Reserve. Also driving a rally were the recently dashed hopes that diminishing Covid cases in China would have meant a reopening of the Chinese economy, and a return to some form of economic normalcy in Asia.

Over the past month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 10.6% as the S&P 500 was up 6.6%. The rally since the middle of October came after a particularly volatile year for global markets as central banks across the globe began tightening monetary policy in an effort to rein in an increasingly aggressive inflation.

Goldman’s strategists expect the Asian market to overperform next year, predicting that the MSCI Asia-Pacific excluding Japan will end the year up 11% at 550 points.