Analysts are saying it may be time to sell Exxon Mobil (XOM) as the stock continues to rise, and oil prices have begun what appears to be a longer-term decline on an oversupply and reducing demand.

So far this year Exxon, the biggest US energy company, is up 86% to $113. However crude prices, such as US benchmark West Texas Intermediate, have now hit $77 per barrel after hitting a June high of $120, and they appear to be continuing to decline.

While Exxon shares may appear reasonable at roughly ten times the projected profits for 2023, at $11.50 per share, if crude remains at present levels, 2023 earnings could be impacted.

When West Texas Intermediate was at $90 per barrel in the first quarter, Exxon earned roughly $2 per share for the quarter. That would be a yearly run rate of about $8 per share. If crude holds to present levels, or even continues to decline amidst a global economic slowdown, Exxon, as well as the entire energy sector, could become subject to a sector-wide sell-off. Looking at rising Covid cases in China, as well as a pending global economic recession, the energy sector may be set to become much more competitive.

Experts note if you wish to remain in the oil sector, Shell (SHEL) could be the right play, given it has lagged behind Exxon by over 50 percentage points this year. Shell is currently trading at $57, which is roughly five times its projected 2023 earnings, while yielding 4% (considering an expected dividend boost). That is compared to 3.2% for Exxon.

While Shell’s European domicile is admittedly a hostile operating climate, and Europe appears more prone to imposing windfall taxes and price caps, the discount to Exxon may be excessive.