Concern among Americans over inflation grew in October, due to fears of a sudden surge in gasoline prices, according to a Federal Reserve survey released on Monday.
The New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that expectations of inflation for the year ahead rose to 5.9%, up .5% from September, bringing it to the highest number since July. The three year expectation also rose to 3.1%, from the previous 2.9%, as the five-year expectation increased to 2.4%, from the previous 2.2%.
The reason for the increase was a fear of a rise in gasoline prices, with respondents saying they think gas prices will rise by 4.8% over the coming year, an increase from the 0.5% reading in September. That was the biggest one month jump in that reading since June of 2013.
Consumers were no less pessimistic on food prices, now anticipating that there will be a 7.6% increase in food prices, up from 6.8% in September. Medical costs and rent did not change significantly, with rent up 0.1%. The expectation for college costs dropped 0.4% from September, to 8.6%.
The survey comes on the heels of the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report showing that inflation was up 0.4% in October. That reading was below the Dow Jones Estimate of 0.6%. The year over year reading of 7.7% was .5% lower than the previous month.
Respondents expected home prices to inch higher by 2%, which was equal to September, and was a tie for the lowest reading since June of 2020.
In response to the aggressive monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve, 42.9% of respondents expect unemployment to be up in a year, which was the highest reading since April of 2020, as the pandemic took hold.
The median expectation for change in household income was 4.3% over the next year, which was a record level. Spending growth was up a full percentage point to 7%. On top of that, 56.7% think credit will be harder to come by in a year.
Another report from the Survey of Professional Forecasters was also released on Monday. It also predicted higher inflation and diminished economic growth. It predicted GDP growth would be only 1.6% for this year, and 1.3% for next year. It also predicted CPI would come in at 7.7% in 2022, and at 3.4% in 2023. It had previously predicted those numbers would come in at 7.5% nd 3.2% respectively.