On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a new report on the future of the energy market, that the EU may have to continue to endure the present energy crisis through 2024.

In the report, the agency says it expects gas shortages during the 2023-2024 winter because present shortages, and the reduction or elimination of Russian supplies in the summer of 2023, may make refilling reserve capacity ahead of the 2023-2024 winter impossible.

The report goes on to point out that while trying to refill reserve capacity this summer, European nations had “benefitted from key factors that may well not be repeated in 2023,” such as Russian pipeline gas deliveries which were flowing at almost full capacity for the first half of the year.

In addition, Europe benefitted from reduced Chinese consumption of liquid natural gas in the early part of the year due to extensive Covid-lockdowns as part of China’s zero-Covid policies. That loosened the global LNG markets, reducing prices and increasing available supplies, allowing Europe to replace lost Russian pipeline supplies.

The report went on, “In the event of a full cessation of Russian pipeline gas supplies to the EU and a recovery of Chinese LNG imports to 2021 levels, the new IEA analysis shows that Europe could face a challenging supply-demand gap of 30 billion cubic meters during the key period for refilling gas storage in the summer of 2023. This gap could represent almost half the gas required to fill storage sites to 95% capacity by the start of the 2023-24 heating season.”

IEA head Fatih Birol said that the 2023-2024 winter will almost certainly be much harsher than the upcoming winter season.

He went on to warn, “When we look at the latest trends and likely developments in global and European gas markets, we see that Europe is set to face an even sterner challenge next winter.”

The report concluded Europe must work to “structurally reduce gas demand” across the continent.