The US Treasury yield spread on the three-month Treasury bill and the ten-year note began going negative this week, signally a near term risk of recession, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.

The yield spread inverted several times since Tuesday’s trading session. On Wednesday it closed below zero, the first time it has done so since March 2nd of 2020, as the Coronavirus pandemic began. The spread closed Thursday’s trading session at negative 11 basis points, the highest negative reading since February 28th of 2020.

The yield curve indicator on US Treasuries is considered one of the most accurate indicators for forecasting recessions across a wide swath of economic variables. It has successfully predicted every recession in recent decades, without a single false alarm. The Wall Street Journal noted, “Inversions have preceded both the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 crash, and haven’t been seen since March 2020.”

The inversion comes as an increasing number of prominent investors have begun warning that tough economic times are forthcoming for the US economy. Many are predicting it likely the US will enter an economic recession within the next 12-18 months, as soaring inflation continues to plague the US economy.

The Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists this month found a 63% likelihood of a recession within 12 months, which it attributed to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive series of rate hikes this year. Over half of economists surveyed said the central bank was going to “over-tighten,” raising rates too high, and triggering an economic slump and destabilizing the economy.