As inflation continues to persist and the Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates, Fitch Ratings is warning the US economy is on track to endure a 1990-style recession by this spring.

On Tuesday the agency downgraded the US growth forecast for this year as well as for 2023. It reduced the 2023 growth forecast from the 1.5% growth estimated in June to 0.5%.

Fitch went on to predict the economic decline will drive the unemployment rate from the present 3.5% up to 5.2% in 2024, producing the loss of millions of jobs. It noted inflation is the biggest headwind facing the economy, as cash-strapped consumers are confronted with rapidly rising costs of living, and their consumer confidence is gradually driven down.

It noted inflation will “prove too much of a drain” on household income in the coming year. As that reduces consumer spending, that will set off the downturn in 2023’s second quarter.

Inflation ran way above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate in September, coming in at 8.2% year over year. This has analysts predicting the nation will be in for its fourth consecutive 75 basis point interest rate hike next month when the Federal Reserve holds its monthly policy meeting.