In a note to clients, Bank of America is warning that the Federal Reserves historically aggressive efforts to tackle inflation will trigger six-figure job losses per month, starting early next year.

During the fourth quarter of this year, BoA analysts expect the job growth rate to be cut in half. As the rate hikes continue to pressure the economy, they predict non-farm payrolls will start to decline in early 2023, producing a loss of roughly 175,000 jobs per month during the first quarter. In charts accompany the note, the bank’s analysts predicted that pattern would continue through much of 2023.

In an interview, the head of US economics at BofA, Michael Gapen said, “The premise is a harder landing rather than a softer one.”

In the note, analysts spoke of the Federal Reserves initial hope it could use monetary tightening to slow price increases without having a significant effect on the economy, or significantly impacting the labor market, in what has been termed a soft landing. However the banks analysts no longer think that is possible. Gapen said, “We are looking for a recession to begin in the first half of next year.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that even though the labor market is cooling, the nation added 263,000 jobs in September, which beat analysts estimates, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% – a level not seen since 1969. However BoA’s analysts note the aggressive rate hikes the Fed is issuing will likely change that.

Gapen predicts the unemployment rate will increase to 5% or 5.5% over the coming year, which is significantly more than the Fed’s stated expectation of 4.4%.

Fed officials have continually underestimated the persistent nature of the present inflation, as well as the degree of aggression the central bank has needed to implement thus far. In addition, their assessment of the impact their policies would need to have on the economy to reduce the inflationary forces has steadily grown more pessimistic as time has gone on.