Credit Suisse Group AG may be facing a capital shortfall of up to 8 billion Swiss francs ($8 billion) in 2024, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs Group Inc, underscoring the difficulties the troubled lender will face is it approaches what will likely be an extensive restructuring.
Given the lender will need to restructure its investment banking operations during a period of “minimal” capital generation, it will face a shortfall of at least 4 billion francs, according to a team of analysts, led by Chris Hallam. They noted it would be prudent for the institution to raise capital.
In a note, the analysts wrote, “Credit Suisse continues to face cyclical and structural challenges.” They gave the stock a “sell” rating.
As Chief Executive Officer Ulrich Koerner looks to close the door on years of scandals and losses, the financial firm is looking at making radical cuts to its investment bank, where it is considering hiving off its securitized products group, among other parts it may spin off. However with just two weeks to present the restructuring plan, analysts are questioning how it will be financed, leading to a volatile rollercoaster ride for its stock, as speculation and rumors about the lender’s financial straits have spread unchecked.
On Tuesday the stock was up as much as 2% at times, dropping to a rise of only 0.5% toward the end of trading.
Bloomberg news has previously reported that executives had been against raising capital by issuing equity with share prices at record lows.
The lender had a STE1 capital ratio of 13.5% on June 30th, which was above the regulatory minimum of 8%, as well as the Swiss requirement of 10%. It has among the highest liquidity coverage ratios within Europe, as well as it’s US peers.
Jefferies analyst Flora Bocahut echoed Goldman’s analysis in a note Tuesday, saying that the lender will need to acquire roughly 9 billion francs of capital. within 2-3 years. However she said she expects the firm to prioritize asset disposals, given the effects of capital increases on stock valuation.
Bidders are already getting in line to acquire the bank’s securitized products unit, which is expected to be key to the downsizing of its investment banking operations, according to a report in Bloomberg. Pimco, Sixth Street, and an investor group including Centerbridge Partners have all already shown interest in the sales process, which is already quite advanced.
People familiar with the firm’s decision making have said the firm is also considering taking on an outside investor, who could inject liquidity into a spinoff of its investment bank and advisory businesses.
The plan, scheduled to be released on October 27th alongside its earnings report, may also include possible asset and business sales. Other possible disposals would include its Latin American wealth management operations excluding Brazil. There are about $100 billion in client assets and loans in the Latin American region accounts including Brazil.
The bank has also moved to sell the 200 year old iconic Savoy hotel, in the center of Zurich’s financial district. Estimates are the building may be worth as much as 400 million Swiss francs (roughly $401 million).
