One expert is predicting the Federal Reserve will be willing to push the economy into a recession if that is what it takes to stifle inflation.
BMO senior economist Jennifer Lee said in an interview with Yahoo, “Unfortunately, yes [the Fed would be OK with a recession]. I’m going to say yes. And the Fed has sort of softened its tone a little bit over the past two months. They used to say that they could probably do this and achieve a softish [economic] landing. But now they’ve already said that there will be pain felt. And it’s unfortunate, but this is what happens when a central bank is aggressively tightening.”
She added that she expects a mild recession in the United States.
Meanwhile the Fed’s actions so far have already spread throughout various facets of the economy.
The US dollar has been overpowering other nation’s currencies, pummeling quarterly sales of US multinationals like Nike and Fed-Ex, due to US product prices in overseas currencies skyrocketing as the dollar strengthens. Mortgage rates have risen to almost 7%, crushing demand in housing. Meanwhile GDP, the primary measure of economic growth, has declined in the first half of the year, putting the economy in a “technical recession.”
At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all have experienced double-digit declines since the start of the year.
It is expected there will be more bad news coming in the upcoming earnings season, as companies use this opportunity to recalibrate their forecasts amid the Fed’s actions, stubbornly persistent inflation, and rising energy costs.
Harvard University professor of economics and author Ken Rogoff warned in an interview, “The dollar is very strong, and interest rates are rising very fast. So I think the idea that it’s going to be a really mild recession, if that, would be lucky. I’d say it’s going to be a tough trade-off for the Fed once the numbers start setting in.”