As tensions grow with Russia, and concerns over energy supplies skyrocket, the Italian economy is expected to stagnate in 2023, according to a new report from released Saturday by the Confindustria Association of Industrialists.

The main business lobby of the country downgraded its GDP growth predictions for the nation for 2023 to zero, from a previous April prediction of 1.6%.

Its report noted, “If tensions between the EU and Russia were to escalate to such an extent as to lead to further price jumps and/or the blocking of gas supplies, the negative effects on production activity would be more severe, implying a more pronounced recession.”

One week ago, the government slashed its own growth forecast for 2023 to 0.6% based off the skyrocketing energy prices. However the current government still projects 2022’s GDP to grow by 3.3%, an increase from the 3.1% forecast it had made in April.

Confindustria, the main association representing manufacturing and service companies in Italy, revised its estimate up however, to 3.4%, from 1.9%, citing the first-half performance of the current year.

Since the EU imposed wide-ranging sections on Russia following the conflict in Ukraine, energy supplies from Russia have become spotty, prompting fears of a shortage in the winter, and skyrocketing energy prices in the interim.

Just in Italy, the share of Russian gas imports into the country has dropped from 40% to roughly 18% since February, with most of the remaining supplies delivered by the continued operation of a gas pipeline passing through Ukraine and Austria, and directly into Italy. Regardless, officials say they believe they can cope with the reduced flows this winter by shifting to alternative fuel sources.

To help, officials have adopted an energy conservation plan which aims to cut the heating season by 15 days, and reducing the temperature in buildings by one degree Celsius.