Russia is presently on track for a historic 100 million ton wheat harvest, according to data from consultant SovEcom. Yet the commodity is piling up in the nation, as exporters struggle to move the large volumes.

After a season of excellent growing conditions, farmers across the nation are finishing up the record harvest. However while such a huge supply would normally impact global commodity prices, this season’s harvest is hitting up against logistical issues from the war in Ukraine, making export of the harvest more difficult than normal.

SovEcon Managing Director Andrey Sizov said in an interview, “Storage has been an issue for a few months for some farmers. We haven’t seen anything like this since 2017-18.”

Russian prices are turning lower than other sources like France and the United States, which is feeding speculation that the bottleneck will begin to be overcome. Earlier in the season, shipments were running into logistical issues due to higher shipping prices and some insurers and banks refusing to handle Russian commodities due to political issues related to the war in Ukraine. Food exports were not specifically targeted with sanctions, however some institutions were still wary of entering into relationships with Russia due to the nature of the international community’s attitudes relating to it.

Wheat prices had jumped after Russia blockaded Ukrainian ports as part of a strategy to prevent the nation from exporting goods. A deal was struck in July, allowing the ports to reopen, however as the war escalated, prices have returned to levels seen before the agreement.

Although the International Grains Council has upgraded its harvest estimate for Russia by 6 million tons, it has not updated its export predictions, noting it expects the extra supply will not be able to leave the country.

Sizov noted, “This huge crop is not fully converting into huge exports.”