The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model was released, predicting Q3 growth would come in at 2.1%.

When they released it, the Atlanta Fed added, “The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.1 percent on July 29. The initial estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 28 was -0.9 percent, 0.3 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on July 27.”

In approximately one month the new estimate will be released, on Monday, August 1.

The Q2 GDPNow estimate came in at -1.2% in its final estimate while other economists were all predicting the economy would post a positive gain. The actual GDP number ended up being -0.9% when it was released a few days ago.

If their methodology continues to be as accurate as before, the economy may begin to pick up in the second half of the year.