Despite a blockbuster jobs report for June, the Atlanta Fed’s real-time GDP tracker is still sitting in negative territory.

According to the Department of Labor’s report, the US economy added 372,000 jobs in June, far exceeding analyst expectations of 250,000. Wholesaler inventories failed to make the 2% expectations of growth, coming in slightly lower at 1.8%.

Regardless of those numbers, the Atlanta Fed’s real-time GDP tracker, called GDPNOW, registered a 1.2% contraction in the economy. If this number is borne out by the official numbers, then this would represent the second consecutive quarter of negative growth that is the technical definition of a recession.

Even if the official numbers came in negative however, it is still possible the official arbiters of what is and what is not a recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research, might still not declare it a recession, based just upon the jobs report showing such aggressive hiring.

Most analysts assume the odds are the Atlanta Fed tracker will not rise into positive territory for any of the three future readings that remain before the official second quarter GDP is released on July 28th.

The next GDPNOW reading will come in a week and will factor in reports on retail sales and inventories, industrial production, and export prices. However retail sales have been softening, and retailers have been reporting they were going to reduce inventories going forward. Meanwhile, manufacturing appears to have slipped into contraction, and imports are starting to surge as China comes out of lockdowns.

The GDPNOW reading that will come after that will arrive on July 19th, when housing starts are released. Housing will probably not shift the balance, as higher mortgage rates will have cooled the market.

The final GDPNOW reading before the official reading is released will come on July 27th. It will likely show a contraction in manufacturing, as surveys currently show. It will also include a combination of inventory and trade data, in the Advance Economic Indicators.

All of those are more likely to depress the GDPNOW number than raise it.

Additionally, historically the GDPNOW number tends to be about a few tenths of a percentage point too optimistic, compared to the final official number. So a negative GDPNOW number will likely presage an official number showing a second quarter of contraction.

And that will be the technical definition of a recession.