The biggest US banks saw their stocks rise on Friday after the Federal reserve completed their annual health check and they passed. Bank of America underperformed, which may mean they need a larger capital buffer than expected. That could limit buybacks and dividends.
Wells Fargo & Co rose 7.5%, making it the fastest riser among the 34 banks that underwent the Fed’s stress test, which simulates a severe economic downturn.
David Konrad, analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) said, “The big picture is that banks are extremely well capitalized and could manage through a downturn.”
The test did find that the banks’ Stress Capital Buffers, (SCB), extra capital banks must keep on hand to cover potential losses and support their operation in the event of an economic downturn, had a large variation in size. Banks which were expected to have to hike their capital buffers were Bank of America, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co, which caused their stocks to underperform.
Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck thinks Bank of America, Citi and JPM will have to keep dividends flat and eliminate any buybacks.
As a result, she thinks Bank of America’s earnings per share will likely to be cut by 1-2%, whereas Citi will see a 1-5% impact on their earnings per share, while JPMorgan’s earnings per share, will fall 1-2%.
KBW’s Konrad thinks, those three banks “buybacks will have to be materially adjusted downward.” He thinks earnings per share will be cut 5% at Bank of America, and about 2% at JP Morgan and Citi.
Bank of America closed up 0.7%, Citi finished up 3.3%, and JP Morgan ended up 3.0%. The S&P by contrast, was up 3.8%.