Goldman Sachs Analysts are beginning to view a recession as more likely.

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a new note, “We now see recession risk as higher and more front-loaded. The main reasons are that our baseline growth path is now lower and that we are increasingly concerned that the Fed will feel compelled to respond forcefully to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations if energy prices rise further, even if activity slows sharply.”

Goldman’s changes to its modeling displayed its concerns, even as it stopped short of proclaiming a recession would occur. For starters, Hatzius now says a recession is 30% likely, as opposed to 15% previously. Then, he lowered his GDP estimate for the balance of this year and 2023.

Hatzius wrote, “With no major imbalances to unwind, a recession caused by moderate over-tightening would most likely be shallow, though even shallower recessions have seen the unemployment rate rise by about 2½pp on average. One additional concern this time is that the fiscal and monetary policy response might be more limited than usual.”

This means Goldman Sachs is now in agreement with Deutsche Bank, who earlier struck a similar tone going forward, saying that a recession will happen in 2023. So far Deutsche Bank is the only Wall Street firm to predict a recession for next year. But they are not the only one on Wall Street to feel this way.

BlackRock Global Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder said, “I don’t think we’re going to see a recession this year. “I think you’re going to see one next year.”