Former Federal Reserve Governor Robert Heller was on CNBC, giving a dire prediction for the state of the economy.
Asked if the 75 basis point hike would be enough to tame inflation, Heller responded, “Absolutely not.”
He went on the say inflation will continue to rise and said the Fed is way behind the curve. He pointed out that the current federal funds rate still has a negative real rate, and it therefore still technically stimulative. So even the raised rate is still pushing inflation higher than it was before.
When asked about the efficacy of the additional 50 to 75 basis point rate hikes the Fed has promised, Heller turned pessimistic, saying, “We are very close to a recession as it is right now. In the first quarter of this year, we already had a slight downturn in GDP. If you look GDP data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, they are forecasting zero GDP for the second quarter. You have one quarter of negative growth and one of no growth. A recession typically is defined as two quarters of negative growth. We are perilously close to that.”
Heller becomes one more voice pointing out that no matter how the economy may feel this instant, by later this year, and into the beginning of next year, it is becoming more likely than not that things will look much different.