According to the results from the latest CNBC CFO Council survey, Chief Financial Officers at top companies are not optimistic about the future of the economy, at least over the short term.

Inflation was cited as the top external risk to their business by over 40% of the CFOs surveyed. However Federal Reserve policy was cited by 23% of CFOs, while 14% saw supply chain disruptions as the biggest threat.

54% of CFOs felt the Federal Reserve would be able to tame inflation, however that did not give them confidence in the state of the economy.

100% of CFOs are predicting a recession is incoming within the next 18 months. The main difference between them was whether it would happen during the first half of 2023 (68%), sooner, or by the second half of next year. No CFO believes that either there will be no recession, or that if there is one it will happen later than the second half of next year.

The survey was conducted among 22 chief financial officers at major organizations between May 12-June 6.

In other data from the survey, 41% of CFOs believe the 10-year US Treasury will flirt with 4% by the end of 2022. Another 41% expect it will rise to less than 3.49% by year’s end. A few CFOs felt it might surpass 4%.

77% of CFOs expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall below 30,000 before it will set any new high. That would be a 9% decline from current levels and an 18% decline since its last high in 2022. 55% say energy will be the fastest growing sector over the next six months.

Finally, 36% expect to increase spending over the next year, while 18% expect to decrease it, while 46% expect to keep it the same. 54% say they will be hiring over the next 12 months, while only 18% expect to decrease staffing levels.