As many on Wall Street are worrying that Federal Reserve rate hikes might tip the economy into a recession, Analysts from Deutsche Bank are striking a more reassuring tone.
Deutsche strategists Parag Thatte and Binky Chadha examined a number of indicators, such as short interest, call volumes, sentiment and fund flows, and others, and found, many indicate the Fed should be able to manage a soft landing, instead of a crash into recession.
They wrote, “While a slowdown in growth looks priced in across the board, very few are down to recession levels.”
They see the S&P closing out the year at 4,750, about 15% above where it was late Monday.
Short interest is near record lows, indicating investors are not betting on stock declines. Compared to the stock market’s capitalization , it is continuing a multi-year downward trend and is presently near 20 year lows.
When looking at the volume of trading in call options, they note the drop, relative to put-option trading does not show expectations of a contraction, and they write, “The put/call ratio is now in line with a growth slowdown (ISM in the low 50s) but not a recession.”
When looking at equity-fund flows, they note they have slowed some from last year, however over the last three months, such funds have seen inflows of more than $25 billion. On top of that, household allocations to stocks are still elevated, and buyback announcements are still strong, at more than $300 billion in the last three months.
It mirrors an analysis from analysts at Goldman Sachs, who also see a soft landing, and offers an interesting counterpoint to the bigger names who have been talking down the economy of late.