In the latest weekly note to investors, Goldman Sachs says it believes the market has hit a floor on equities. Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist David J. Kostin says the S&P 500 will finish the year at 4,300, a 10.3% rally from Friday’s close, after briefly falling into Bear territory.

However Goldman’s 4,300 prediction is actually a downgrade for the index, and exactly mirrors the banks worst-case recession forecast. Previously they had predicted an end of year close at 4700. However as inflation soared, the Fed tightened monetary policy, and wars and lockdowns continued to wear on the global economy, that number no longer appeared tenable. Still, Goldman is more optimistic that he latest MLIV Pulse survey of equities specialists which sees the S&P finishing this year at 3,500.

Much of that sentiment is based on the findings of Bank of America. BofA Securities’ latest report was titled “3,600 is the new bull case,” and purports to summarize the market chatter they are hearing.

A 3,600 year-end finish would be an additional 7.7% drop in the S&P 500,wiping out all gains accrued since Joe Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 election.

BofA Securities chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, says history would indicate investros will be in for five more months of losses if the market returns to Bear territory. He says, that historically, market downturns of this magnitude tend to last 289 days, and wipe out, on average, 37.3%.

That would place the S&P 500 at 3,000 and the Nasdaq at 10,000.

One data point to watch is the so-called JOLTS number, representing job openings. Currently, at 11.5 million, it suggests a mismatch in the labor market with employers struggling to find workers to keep their businesses operational.

BofA Securities chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett says the JOLTS number, “needs to pullback below 10 million… to induce bullish peak wages, peak yields, peak dollar narrative.”