The GIC Weekly just came out. In it: 

Morgan Stanley estimates a 27% chance of recession in the next 12 months, up from just 5% in March. Investor anxiety now extends to high yield, mortgage-backed securities and emerging market debt.

As the economy transitions to increased debt-spending, clearly at some point it will pay to be invested in the debt issuers, assuming the effects of rising fuel are not driven so far that debt cannot, and will not be repaid.

One should assume a catastrophic endpoint, a profitable midpoint, and then monitor conditions to judge if you approach, and predict any transition into the catastrophic endpoint.